Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 14.305722 16.330836 18.504407 21.006548 23.802991 26.827619 30.342059
2025-08-10 11.282182 14.037083 17.217438 21.142876 25.838865 31.256564 37.958988
2025-08-17 9.730838 12.797700 16.506894 21.290435 27.259543 34.423070 43.627078
2025-08-24 8.454281 11.694446 15.781564 21.263316 28.363613 37.183912 48.894597
2025-08-31 7.416179 10.728039 15.063312 21.080364 29.129370 39.428285 53.488845
2025-09-07 6.678565 10.063184 14.645005 21.202840 30.230863 42.088398 58.678145
2025-09-14 6.220847 9.723864 14.610670 21.798721 31.948144 45.587197 65.080524
2025-09-21 5.583878 9.055256 14.045323 21.586540 32.503144 47.505003 69.394851
2025-09-28 4.834448 8.140617 13.040502 20.650699 31.946007 47.818502 71.459574
2025-10-05 4.582556 7.961539 13.097332 21.255101 33.612703 51.295259 78.073022
2025-10-12 4.313983 7.727589 13.045076 21.677062 35.012329 54.427592 84.298287
2025-10-19 3.953699 7.308849 12.668705 21.564539 35.583891 56.355526 88.825413
2025-10-26 3.586074 6.850809 12.204641 21.296298 35.920348 57.978914 93.023115
2025-11-02 3.308928 6.522875 11.926255 21.302706 36.677457 60.259327 98.292325
2025-11-09 3.095284 6.285294 11.775467 21.497233 37.725745 63.005503 104.347552
2025-11-16 2.861083 5.987421 11.497018 21.453890 38.375125 65.144047 109.530170
2025-11-23 2.628118 5.668811 11.155926 21.275010 38.779242 66.894765 114.149848
2025-11-30 2.462186 5.462614 10.997306 21.396553 39.680295 69.458967 120.131171
2025-12-07 2.377395 5.408268 11.108955 21.997922 41.417881 73.433968 128.503033
2025-12-14 2.189963 5.128493 10.780937 21.783790 41.729620 75.071084 133.125031
2025-12-21 1.929601 4.671206 10.081356 20.840459 40.706321 74.434074 133.968792
2025-12-28 1.874076 4.644668 10.211470 21.449728 42.468633 78.542073 142.824183
2026-01-04 1.800838 4.572487 10.245395 21.875106 43.912572 82.151645 150.950468